-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\Collin\Documents\analysis_1985.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   1 Apr 2020, 13:19:29

. use final_5_yr_blocks.dta, clear

. 
. *Pre-1985
. 
. *SUMMARY
. su neu_dr_at_recipient_dum binemb_neubirth neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient ///
>  neu_powerpc_sender    neu_s3uni  neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender  ///
>  c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_recipient  c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_sender  ///
>  neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender  neu_westandruscoldummy ///
>  neu_dr_at_sender_dum  neu_bilattradegdp_sender neu_independence_sender ///
>  neu_demdem neu_autocautoc  if post1985==0

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
neu_dr~t_dum |     85,384    .3112995    .4630277          0          1
binemb_neu~h |     85,808    .2506177    .4333712          0          1
neu_lndist~e |    137,624    8.731725    .7808606   4.308874   9.895805
neu_powerp~t |    108,468   -.1438074    1.043452  -2.294384   4.898831
neu_powerp~r |    108,468   -.1438074    1.043452  -2.294384   4.898831
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   neu_s3uni |     87,317    .6264392    .3001826         -1          1
neu_lngdpp~t |    115,920    7.912644    1.061053      5.826   10.46874
neu_lngdpp~r |    115,920    7.912644    1.061053      5.826   10.46874
             |
 c.neu_s3uni#|
          c. |
neu_powerp~t |     77,042    -.168187    .6581428  -4.159209   4.387013
             |
 c.neu_s3uni#|
          c. |
neu_powerp~r |     77,038   -.1682471      .65846  -4.159209   4.387013
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
             |
neu_lngdpp~t |    115,920    7.912644    1.061053      5.826   10.46874
neu_lngdpp~r |    115,920    7.912644    1.061053      5.826   10.46874
neu_westan~y |    171,396    .5845411    .4928024          0          1
neu_dr~r_dum |     85,384    .3112995    .4630277          0          1
neu_bilatt~r |     85,395    .0027006    .0275022          0    3.19367
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
neu_indepe~r |    149,040    1943.406    47.07359       1816       1993
  neu_demdem |     71,346    .0895776    .2855776          0          1
neu_autoca~c |     71,346    .4932722    .4999582          0          1

. 
. *primary results - original data
. xi: logit  neu_dr_at_recipient_dum   neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient ///
>   neu_powerpc_sender    neu_s3uni   c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_recipient  ///
>   c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_sender  neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender ///
>   neu_westandruscoldummy  i.year if  Corrected_samedyad==0 & post1985==0, cluster( neu_dy
> adid)
i.year            _Iyear_1970-2005    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1970 omitted)

note: _Iyear_1990 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_1995 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2000 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2005 omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -44538.235  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -29644.582  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -29299.871  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -29299.219  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -29299.219  

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     67,945
                                                Wald chi2(12)     =    5944.69
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -29299.219               Pseudo R2         =     0.3422

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 18,084 clusters in neu_dyadid)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
neu_dr_at_recipient_dum |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         neu_lndistance |  -1.218973   .0279724   -43.58   0.000    -1.273798   -1.164148
  neu_powerpc_recipient |   .8968638   .0450893    19.89   0.000     .8084903    .9852373
     neu_powerpc_sender |   .9789253   .0474744    20.62   0.000     .8858771    1.071973
              neu_s3uni |    .391887   .0560405     6.99   0.000     .2820497    .5017244
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
c.neu_powerpc_recipient |   .1725099    .061154     2.82   0.005     .0526502    .2923696
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
   c.neu_powerpc_sender |   .3689256   .0644463     5.72   0.000     .2426132     .495238
                        |
  neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .3205272   .0183334    17.48   0.000     .2845944      .35646
     neu_lngdppc_sender |   .1798097    .019332     9.30   0.000     .1419196    .2176998
 neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.3644524    .039134    -9.31   0.000    -.4411537   -.2877511
            _Iyear_1975 |   .3870273   .0248697    15.56   0.000     .3382836    .4357711
            _Iyear_1980 |   .6881426   .0273974    25.12   0.000     .6344447    .7418406
            _Iyear_1985 |  -.2333965     .02806    -8.32   0.000     -.288393      -.1784
            _Iyear_1990 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1995 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_2000 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
                  _cons |   5.968233   .3209895    18.59   0.000     5.339105    6.597361
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. estat class

Logistic model for neu_dr_at_recipient_dum

              -------- True --------
Classified |         D            ~D  |      Total
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
     +     |     15994          4509  |      20503
     -     |      8716         38726  |      47442
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
   Total   |     24710         43235  |      67945

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as neu_dr_at_recipient_dum != 0
--------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D)   64.73%
Specificity                     Pr( -|~D)   89.57%
Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +)   78.01%
Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -)   81.63%
--------------------------------------------------
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D)   10.43%
False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D)   35.27%
False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +)   21.99%
False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -)   18.37%
--------------------------------------------------
Correctly classified                        80.54%
--------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_recipient=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atm
> eans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     67,945
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(neu_dr_at_recipient_dum), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -2.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -1.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         -.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =          .8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         1.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         2.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         3.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         4.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |   -.002216   .0081355    -0.27   0.785    -.0181612    .0137292
          2  |   .0163173   .0116401     1.40   0.161    -.0064969    .0391315
          3  |   .0657758   .0125975     5.22   0.000     .0410851    .0904664
          4  |   .1177119   .0179906     6.54   0.000     .0824509    .1529729
          5  |   .1134108   .0209548     5.41   0.000     .0723401    .1544815
          6  |   .0715347   .0155659     4.60   0.000     .0410262    .1020432
          7  |   .0359443   .0088647     4.05   0.000     .0185698    .0533188
          8  |   .0162071   .0044088     3.68   0.000     .0075661    .0248482
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_sender=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atmean
> s

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     67,945
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(neu_dr_at_recipient_dum), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -2.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -1.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         -.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =          .8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         1.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         2.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         3.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         4.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0166448   .0059092    -2.82   0.005    -.0282265    -.005063
          2  |  -.0079561   .0103537    -0.77   0.442     -.028249    .0123368
          3  |   .0630784   .0125657     5.02   0.000     .0384502    .0877066
          4  |   .1583897   .0175905     9.00   0.000      .123913    .1928664
          5  |   .1410508   .0170373     8.28   0.000     .1076583    .1744433
          6  |   .0729132   .0103674     7.03   0.000     .0525936    .0932329
          7  |   .0297438   .0049469     6.01   0.000      .020048    .0394396
          8  |   .0109878   .0020947     5.25   0.000     .0068822    .0150934
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(*) atmeans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     67,945
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(neu_dr_at_recipient_dum), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient neu_powerpc_sender neu_s3uni
               neu_lngdppc_recipient neu_lngdppc_sender neu_westandruscoldummy
               _Iyear_1975 _Iyear_1980 _Iyear_1985 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_2000
               _Iyear_2005
at           : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       |            Delta-method
                       |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        neu_lndistance |  -.2686405   .0064574   -41.60   0.000    -.2812968   -.2559843
 neu_powerpc_recipient |   .2214035   .0057887    38.25   0.000     .2100578    .2327493
    neu_powerpc_sender |   .2665299   .0068247    39.05   0.000     .2531537    .2799062
             neu_s3uni |   .0692829   .0126963     5.46   0.000     .0443986    .0941672
 neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .0706387   .0040246    17.55   0.000     .0627506    .0785267
    neu_lngdppc_sender |   .0396269   .0042497     9.32   0.000     .0312977    .0479562
neu_westandruscoldummy |   -.080319   .0086017    -9.34   0.000     -.097178     -.06346
           _Iyear_1975 |   .0852941   .0055185    15.46   0.000     .0744781    .0961102
           _Iyear_1980 |   .1516547   .0061021    24.85   0.000     .1396949    .1636146
           _Iyear_1985 |  -.0514365   .0061872    -8.31   0.000    -.0635633   -.0393098
           _Iyear_1990 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1995 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_2000 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.  eststo neu_pre1985

. 
. 
. *primary results - new embassy data
. xi: logit  binemb_neubirth   neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient neu_powerpc_sender ///
>   neu_s3uni   c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_recipient  c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_sender ///
>   neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender  neu_westandruscoldummy ///
>   i.year if  Corrected_samedyad==0 & post1985==0, cluster( neu_dyadid)
i.year            _Iyear_1970-2005    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1970 omitted)

note: _Iyear_1990 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_1995 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2000 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2005 omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -41497.97  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -26429.064  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -25766.472  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -25762.088  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -25762.086  

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     67,945
                                                Wald chi2(12)     =    4613.81
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -25762.086               Pseudo R2         =     0.3792

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 18,084 clusters in neu_dyadid)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
        binemb_neubirth |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         neu_lndistance |  -1.324705   .0302033   -43.86   0.000    -1.383902   -1.265508
  neu_powerpc_recipient |   1.255954     .06535    19.22   0.000     1.127871    1.384038
     neu_powerpc_sender |    1.20585   .0615517    19.59   0.000     1.085211    1.326489
              neu_s3uni |    .764074   .0692357    11.04   0.000     .6283745    .8997735
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
c.neu_powerpc_recipient |  -.0689434   .0874035    -0.79   0.430    -.2402511    .1023642
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
   c.neu_powerpc_sender |   .1238229   .0842349     1.47   0.142    -.0412745    .2889204
                        |
  neu_lngdppc_recipient |     .20965   .0210644     9.95   0.000     .1683645    .2509355
     neu_lngdppc_sender |   .2498261   .0224514    11.13   0.000     .2058222      .29383
 neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.3130613    .046147    -6.78   0.000    -.4035078   -.2226148
            _Iyear_1975 |  -.1953843   .0247047    -7.91   0.000    -.2438046    -.146964
            _Iyear_1980 |  -.1633867   .0280107    -5.83   0.000    -.2182866   -.1084867
            _Iyear_1985 |  -.1016431   .0298668    -3.40   0.001     -.160181   -.0431052
            _Iyear_1990 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1995 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_2000 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
                  _cons |   6.804269   .3632383    18.73   0.000     6.092335    7.516203
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. estat class

Logistic model for binemb_neubirth

              -------- True --------
Classified |         D            ~D  |      Total
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
     +     |     12622          3343  |      15965
     -     |      7753         44227  |      51980
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
   Total   |     20375         47570  |      67945

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as binemb_neubirth != 0
--------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D)   61.95%
Specificity                     Pr( -|~D)   92.97%
Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +)   79.06%
Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -)   85.08%
--------------------------------------------------
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D)    7.03%
False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D)   38.05%
False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +)   20.94%
False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -)   14.92%
--------------------------------------------------
Correctly classified                        83.67%
--------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_recipient=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atm
> eans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     67,945
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(binemb_neubirth), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -2.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -1.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         -.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =          .8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         1.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         2.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         3.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         4.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |   .0203882   .0048347     4.22   0.000     .0109123    .0298641
          2  |   .0568841   .0091802     6.20   0.000     .0388913     .074877
          3  |   .1270209    .012753     9.96   0.000     .1020255    .1520163
          4  |   .1723724   .0221317     7.79   0.000     .1289951    .2157498
          5  |    .115813   .0293465     3.95   0.000     .0582949     .173331
          6  |   .0448507   .0196281     2.29   0.022     .0063803    .0833211
          7  |   .0132832   .0090299     1.47   0.141    -.0044152    .0309815
          8  |   .0035259   .0035327     1.00   0.318     -.003398    .0104498
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_sender=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atmean
> s

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     67,945
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(binemb_neubirth), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -2.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -1.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         -.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =          .8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         1.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         2.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         3.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         4.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |   .0099133   .0042367     2.34   0.019     .0016095    .0182171
          2  |   .0402525   .0087453     4.60   0.000     .0231119    .0573931
          3  |   .1248868   .0127483     9.80   0.000     .0999006    .1498729
          4  |   .2181916   .0211187    10.33   0.000     .1767996    .2595835
          5  |   .1725799   .0255825     6.75   0.000     .1224392    .2227207
          6  |   .0763903   .0159757     4.78   0.000     .0450786    .1077021
          7  |   .0262263    .006964     3.77   0.000     .0125772    .0398754
          8  |   .0082466   .0025991     3.17   0.002     .0031525    .0133407
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(*) atmeans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     67,945
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(binemb_neubirth), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient neu_powerpc_sender neu_s3uni
               neu_lngdppc_recipient neu_lngdppc_sender neu_westandruscoldummy
               _Iyear_1975 _Iyear_1980 _Iyear_1985 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_2000
               _Iyear_2005
at           : neu_lndist~e    =    8.688249 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =    -.143276 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.1431048 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6247076 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    7.915714 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    7.916004 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .5590404 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =    .2562661 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =    .2660976 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =    .2661123 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =           0 (mean)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       |            Delta-method
                       |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        neu_lndistance |  -.2301213   .0056357   -40.83   0.000     -.241167   -.2190755
 neu_powerpc_recipient |   .2106964   .0053879    39.11   0.000     .2001364    .2212565
    neu_powerpc_sender |   .2229117   .0058846    37.88   0.000     .2113781    .2344454
             neu_s3uni |    .131369   .0129675    10.13   0.000      .105953    .1567849
 neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .0364194   .0036484     9.98   0.000     .0292687      .04357
    neu_lngdppc_sender |   .0433986   .0038738    11.20   0.000      .035806    .0509911
neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.0543835   .0079952    -6.80   0.000    -.0700537   -.0387132
           _Iyear_1975 |  -.0339412   .0042474    -7.99   0.000    -.0422659   -.0256165
           _Iyear_1980 |  -.0283827   .0048234    -5.88   0.000    -.0378363   -.0189291
           _Iyear_1985 |  -.0176569   .0051639    -3.42   0.001     -.027778   -.0075359
           _Iyear_1990 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1995 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_2000 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.  eststo binemb_pre1985

.  
. 
.  ***POST 1985***
. 
.  *SUMMARY
. su neu_dr_at_recipient_dum binemb_neubirth neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient ///
>  neu_powerpc_sender    neu_s3uni  neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender  ///
>  c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_recipient  c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_sender  ///
>  neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender  neu_westandruscoldummy ///
>  neu_dr_at_sender_dum  neu_bilattradegdp_sender neu_independence_sender ///
>  neu_demdem neu_autocautoc  if post1985==1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
neu_dr~t_dum |    127,982    .2249848    .4175739          0          1
binemb_neu~h |    128,050    .2282624    .4197142          0          1
neu_lndist~e |    137,624    8.731725    .7808606   4.308874   9.895805
neu_powerp~t |     98,739   -.0267993    .9791538  -2.184487   4.692826
neu_powerp~r |     98,739   -.0267993    .9791538  -2.184487   4.692826
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   neu_s3uni |    126,464    .6835821    .2826595         -1          1
neu_lngdpp~t |    104,949    8.096959    1.098305   5.384495   10.24456
neu_lngdpp~r |    104,949    8.096959    1.098305   5.384495   10.24456
             |
 c.neu_s3uni#|
          c. |
neu_powerp~t |     83,440   -.0887773    .6691623  -4.692826   4.139845
             |
 c.neu_s3uni#|
          c. |
neu_powerp~r |     83,444   -.0882682    .6699039  -4.692826   4.139845
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
             |
neu_lngdpp~t |    104,949    8.096959    1.098305   5.384495   10.24456
neu_lngdpp~r |    104,949    8.096959    1.098305   5.384495   10.24456
neu_westan~y |    171,396    .5845411    .4928024          0          1
neu_dr~r_dum |    127,982    .2249848    .4175739          0          1
neu_bilatt~r |    125,992    .0020056    .0153392          0   1.181419
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
neu_indepe~r |    149,040    1943.406    47.07359       1816       1993
  neu_demdem |     89,020     .306976    .4612419          0          1
neu_autoca~c |     89,020    .2051786    .4038343          0          1

. 
. *primary results - original data
. xi: logit  neu_dr_at_recipient_dum   neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient ///
>   neu_powerpc_sender    neu_s3uni   c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_recipient  ///
>   c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_sender  neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender ///
>   neu_westandruscoldummy  i.year if  Corrected_samedyad==0 & post1985==1, cluster( neu_dy
> adid)
i.year            _Iyear_1970-2005    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1970 omitted)

note: _Iyear_1975 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_1980 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2005 omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -40359.822  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -24933.015  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -24095.835  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -24085.364  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -24085.347  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -24085.347  

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     66,645
                                                Wald chi2(12)     =    6262.91
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -24085.347               Pseudo R2         =     0.4032

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 24,100 clusters in neu_dyadid)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
neu_dr_at_recipient_dum |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         neu_lndistance |  -1.300175   .0266974   -48.70   0.000    -1.352501   -1.247849
  neu_powerpc_recipient |   1.769304   .1243648    14.23   0.000     1.525553    2.013054
     neu_powerpc_sender |   1.630554   .1087423    14.99   0.000     1.417423    1.843685
              neu_s3uni |   .4822707   .0888304     5.43   0.000     .3081662    .6563751
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
c.neu_powerpc_recipient |  -.5173419   .1614781    -3.20   0.001    -.8338332   -.2008506
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
   c.neu_powerpc_sender |  -.2359937   .1433188    -1.65   0.100    -.5168933     .044906
                        |
  neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .1203344   .0211597     5.69   0.000     .0788622    .1618066
     neu_lngdppc_sender |   .0385105   .0215239     1.79   0.074    -.0036755    .0806966
 neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.5012229   .0426379   -11.76   0.000    -.5847917   -.4176541
            _Iyear_1975 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1980 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1985 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1990 |   .9160286   .0868959    10.54   0.000     .7457157    1.086341
            _Iyear_1995 |   .4054916   .0854475     4.75   0.000     .2380175    .5729657
            _Iyear_2000 |   .2834088   .0845018     3.35   0.001     .1177883    .4490292
            _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
                  _cons |   8.148344   .3717438    21.92   0.000     7.419739    8.876948
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. estat class

Logistic model for neu_dr_at_recipient_dum

              -------- True --------
Classified |         D            ~D  |      Total
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
     +     |     12515          3308  |      15823
     -     |      7071         43751  |      50822
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
   Total   |     19586         47059  |      66645

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as neu_dr_at_recipient_dum != 0
--------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D)   63.90%
Specificity                     Pr( -|~D)   92.97%
Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +)   79.09%
Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -)   86.09%
--------------------------------------------------
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D)    7.03%
False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D)   36.10%
False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +)   20.91%
False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -)   13.91%
--------------------------------------------------
Correctly classified                        84.43%
--------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_recipient=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atm
> eans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     66,645
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(neu_dr_at_recipient_dum), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -2.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -1.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         -.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =          .8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         1.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         2.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         3.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         4.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |   .0190157   .0043546     4.37   0.000     .0104809    .0275505
          2  |   .0494379   .0102115     4.84   0.000     .0294237    .0694521
          3  |   .0825996   .0145945     5.66   0.000     .0539949    .1112043
          4  |   .0189672   .0307433     0.62   0.537    -.0412885    .0792229
          5  |  -.0779213   .0470344    -1.66   0.098    -.1701071    .0142644
          6  |  -.0605574   .0263933    -2.29   0.022    -.1122873   -.0088275
          7  |  -.0253073   .0098285    -2.57   0.010    -.0445709   -.0060438
          8  |  -.0085743   .0031657    -2.71   0.007    -.0147789   -.0023696
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_sender=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atmean
> s

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     66,645
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(neu_dr_at_recipient_dum), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -2.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -1.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         -.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =          .8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         1.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         2.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         3.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         4.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |   .0105443   .0036202     2.91   0.004     .0034489    .0176398
          2  |   .0327973   .0090695     3.62   0.000     .0150214    .0505732
          3  |   .0756605   .0142932     5.29   0.000     .0476464    .1036747
          4  |    .077527   .0281973     2.75   0.006     .0222613    .1327926
          5  |   .0126657   .0392988     0.32   0.747    -.0643586    .0896899
          6  |  -.0087961   .0204924    -0.43   0.668    -.0489605    .0313683
          7  |  -.0055048   .0071319    -0.77   0.440     -.019483    .0084735
          8  |  -.0020717   .0021473    -0.96   0.335    -.0062803    .0021368
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(*) atmeans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     66,645
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(neu_dr_at_recipient_dum), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient neu_powerpc_sender neu_s3uni
               neu_lngdppc_recipient neu_lngdppc_sender neu_westandruscoldummy
               _Iyear_1975 _Iyear_1980 _Iyear_1985 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_2000
               _Iyear_2005
at           : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       |            Delta-method
                       |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        neu_lndistance |  -.2093381   .0047272   -44.28   0.000    -.2186032    -.200073
 neu_powerpc_recipient |   .2269359   .0049132    46.19   0.000     .2173063    .2365655
    neu_powerpc_sender |   .2361035   .0051638    45.72   0.000     .2259827    .2462243
             neu_s3uni |   .0819378   .0147583     5.55   0.000     .0530121    .1108634
 neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .0193748   .0033957     5.71   0.000     .0127193    .0260302
    neu_lngdppc_sender |   .0062005   .0034607     1.79   0.073    -.0005825    .0129834
neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.0807007   .0068233   -11.83   0.000    -.0940742   -.0673272
           _Iyear_1975 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1980 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1985 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1990 |   .1474876   .0142378    10.36   0.000     .1195821    .1753931
           _Iyear_1995 |   .0652873   .0138323     4.72   0.000     .0381764    .0923981
           _Iyear_2000 |    .045631   .0136528     3.34   0.001     .0188719    .0723901
           _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.  eststo neu_post1985

. 
. 
. *primary results - new embassy data
. xi: logit  binemb_neubirth   neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient neu_powerpc_sender ///
>   neu_s3uni   c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_recipient  c.neu_s3uni#c.neu_powerpc_sender ///
>   neu_lngdppc_recipient  neu_lngdppc_sender  neu_westandruscoldummy ///
>   i.year if  Corrected_samedyad==0 & post1985==1, cluster( neu_dyadid)
i.year            _Iyear_1970-2005    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1970 omitted)

note: _Iyear_1975 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_1980 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2005 omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -40605.865  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -25154.382  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -24345.711  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -24333.735  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -24333.703  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -24333.703  

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     66,645
                                                Wald chi2(12)     =    6425.23
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -24333.703               Pseudo R2         =     0.4007

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 24,100 clusters in neu_dyadid)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
        binemb_neubirth |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         neu_lndistance |  -1.313157   .0259366   -50.63   0.000    -1.363992   -1.262322
  neu_powerpc_recipient |   1.879626   .1174636    16.00   0.000     1.649402     2.10985
     neu_powerpc_sender |   1.730168   .1102483    15.69   0.000     1.514085    1.946251
              neu_s3uni |   .4965469    .087756     5.66   0.000     .3245483    .6685455
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
c.neu_powerpc_recipient |  -.6710773   .1509728    -4.45   0.000    -.9669785   -.3751761
                        |
            c.neu_s3uni#|
   c.neu_powerpc_sender |  -.3856938   .1444149    -2.67   0.008    -.6687417   -.1026459
                        |
  neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .0908962   .0208575     4.36   0.000     .0500163     .131776
     neu_lngdppc_sender |   .0304265   .0212765     1.43   0.153    -.0112747    .0721277
 neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.5123099   .0422673   -12.12   0.000    -.5951523   -.4294676
            _Iyear_1975 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1980 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1985 |          0  (omitted)
            _Iyear_1990 |    .840049   .0866751     9.69   0.000      .670169    1.009929
            _Iyear_1995 |   .3738097   .0852618     4.38   0.000     .2066995    .5409198
            _Iyear_2000 |   .2861875   .0841321     3.40   0.001     .1212917    .4510834
            _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
                  _cons |   8.621047    .365701    23.57   0.000     7.904287    9.337808
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. estat class

Logistic model for binemb_neubirth

              -------- True --------
Classified |         D            ~D  |      Total
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
     +     |     12715          3363  |      16078
     -     |      7155         43412  |      50567
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
   Total   |     19870         46775  |      66645

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as binemb_neubirth != 0
--------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity                     Pr( +| D)   63.99%
Specificity                     Pr( -|~D)   92.81%
Positive predictive value       Pr( D| +)   79.08%
Negative predictive value       Pr(~D| -)   85.85%
--------------------------------------------------
False + rate for true ~D        Pr( +|~D)    7.19%
False - rate for true D         Pr( -| D)   36.01%
False + rate for classified +   Pr(~D| +)   20.92%
False - rate for classified -   Pr( D| -)   14.15%
--------------------------------------------------
Correctly classified                        84.22%
--------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_recipient=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atm
> eans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     66,645
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(binemb_neubirth), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -2.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =        -1.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         -.2
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =          .8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         1.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         2.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         3.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =         4.8
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |    .023747   .0041494     5.72   0.000     .0156144    .0318796
          2  |   .0599932   .0097346     6.16   0.000     .0409137    .0790727
          3  |    .091443   .0144384     6.33   0.000     .0631443    .1197417
          4  |  -.0066762    .029818    -0.22   0.823    -.0651185     .051766
          5  |  -.1208727   .0433223    -2.79   0.005    -.2057829   -.0359626
          6  |  -.0834986   .0238798    -3.50   0.000    -.1303022    -.036695
          7  |  -.0335189     .00893    -3.75   0.000    -.0510213   -.0160164
          8  |  -.0111236   .0029215    -3.81   0.000    -.0168496   -.0053976
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(neu_s3uni) at(neu_powerpc_sender=(-2.2 -1.2 -.2 .8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8)) atmean
> s

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     66,645
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(binemb_neubirth), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_s3uni

1._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -2.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

2._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =        -1.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

3._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         -.2
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

4._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =          .8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

5._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         1.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

6._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         2.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

7._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         3.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

8._at        : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =         4.8
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
neu_s3uni    |
         _at |
          1  |   .0147376   .0037311     3.95   0.000     .0074248    .0220504
          2  |   .0425427   .0092183     4.62   0.000     .0244752    .0606103
          3  |   .0843133   .0143211     5.89   0.000     .0562444    .1123822
          4  |   .0527681   .0288629     1.83   0.068    -.0038021    .1093384
          5  |  -.0286151   .0395368    -0.72   0.469    -.1061057    .0488756
          6  |  -.0302346   .0204555    -1.48   0.139    -.0703266    .0098573
          7  |  -.0129552   .0071483    -1.81   0.070    -.0269656    .0010551
          8  |  -.0043201   .0021751    -1.99   0.047    -.0085832   -.0000569
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(*) atmeans

Conditional marginal effects                    Number of obs     =     66,645
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Pr(binemb_neubirth), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : neu_lndistance neu_powerpc_recipient neu_powerpc_sender neu_s3uni
               neu_lngdppc_recipient neu_lngdppc_sender neu_westandruscoldummy
               _Iyear_1975 _Iyear_1980 _Iyear_1985 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_2000
               _Iyear_2005
at           : neu_lndist~e    =    8.632529 (mean)
               neu_powerp~t    =   -.0356004 (mean)
               neu_powerp~r    =   -.0348224 (mean)
               neu_s3uni       =    .6955375 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~t    =    8.028913 (mean)
               neu_lngdpp~r    =    8.029057 (mean)
               neu_westan~y    =    .6099182 (mean)
               _Iyear_1975     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1980     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1985     =           0 (mean)
               _Iyear_1990     =    .2719184 (mean)
               _Iyear_1995     =    .3580014 (mean)
               _Iyear_2000     =    .3583165 (mean)
               _Iyear_2005     =    .0117638 (mean)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       |            Delta-method
                       |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        neu_lndistance |  -.2154128    .004694   -45.89   0.000    -.2246129   -.2062128
 neu_powerpc_recipient |   .2317693   .0049459    46.86   0.000     .2220756    .2414631
    neu_powerpc_sender |   .2398135   .0051662    46.42   0.000      .229688     .249939
             neu_s3uni |   .0875768   .0147938     5.92   0.000     .0585815     .116572
 neu_lngdppc_recipient |   .0149108   .0034121     4.37   0.000     .0082231    .0215984
    neu_lngdppc_sender |   .0049912   .0034874     1.43   0.152    -.0018439    .0118263
neu_westandruscoldummy |  -.0840403   .0068963   -12.19   0.000    -.0975568   -.0705238
           _Iyear_1975 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1980 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1985 |          0  (omitted)
           _Iyear_1990 |   .1378033   .0144389     9.54   0.000     .1095035     .166103
           _Iyear_1995 |   .0613205   .0140555     4.36   0.000     .0337722    .0888687
           _Iyear_2000 |   .0469468   .0138487     3.39   0.001     .0198038    .0740898
           _Iyear_2005 |          0  (omitted)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.  eststo binemb_post1985

. 
. 
.  esttab neu_pre1985 neu_post1985 binemb_pre1985 binemb_post1985 ///
>  using neumayer_ouput_1985.csv, eform aic bic  pr2 obslast compress replace
(output written to neumayer_ouput_1985.csv)

.  
.  estimates clear

. 
. *****************************************************************************************
. ************************ANNUAL RECREATION - Neumayer/Diplo Obs Matched ******************
> ***
. *****************************************************************************************
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\Collin\Documents\analysis_1985.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   1 Apr 2020, 13:20:49
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
